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The intentions to stay or return among tolerated persons , , Findings from a survey experiment with West African asylum seekers
Source: © BAMF
The BAMF Brief Analysis 02|2025 examines the intentions of tolerated persons to stay in Germany or return to their country of origin, and provides insights into individual decision-making processes. In order to examine under which circumstances tolerated persons intend to stay or return, an innovative survey experiment – a vignette study – was conducted with persons from Nigeria, Ghana, Gambia and Sierra Leone. Its empirical findings were linked with insights from qualitative interviews. The analysis is part of the MIMAP research project "Feasibility Study on the im-/mobility of people obliged to leave Germany".
The situation of tolerated persons is characterised by a constant negotiation between staying and the possibility of return. Yet, previous research on (return) migration intentions has largely overlooked tolerated migrants. This is partly because this group is difficult to reach for scientific purposes. Therefore, innovative methods were employed for the present study.
Vignette study – What exactly is that?
The app-based survey included a survey experiment: Drawing on their own experiences, participants evaluated four situations of fictitious tolerated persons with experimentally varied characteristics and advised whether they should stay in Germany or return to their country of origin. The findings were further enriched by insights from qualitative ethnographic interviews.
An overview of the most important results
The situation in the country of origin, employment in Germany and family situation have the greatest influence on intentions to stay or return
The analyses show that a good situation in the country of origin significantly increase the intention to return. By contrast, an intention to stay becomes particularly apparent among tolerated migrants who are employed in Germany, or whose children also live in Germany.
Family expectations play a minor role
In research and debates around return policies, expectations of relatives in the country of origin are often perceived as an obstacle to an actual return. This BAMF Brief Analysis finds no clear influence of family expectations on the intention to stay or return.
Migration policy instruments have little impact on the intensions to stay or return
The intentions to stay or return among tolerated persons from Anglophone West Africa do not change significantly with the level of financial return assistance, an increased risk of deportation or improved prospects of legal residence.
Conclusion
The results of the Brief Analysis indicate that the intentions to stay in Germany or return to their country of origin among tolerated persons should not be viewed one-dimensionally. Instead, multiple factors exert influence on these intentions. Therefore, a well-coordinated combination of measures encouraging return and options of legal residence is necessary to prevent long-term toleration.
The Brief Analysis was written by: Randy Stache, Dr. Lisa Johnson, Dr. Laura Peitz and Anne-Kathrin Carwehl
It is only available in German.