Effects of the Opportunity Residence Permit , Date: 27/11/2025, format: project (current), area: Authority

The research project "Residence on Probation: Effects of the Opportunity Residence Permit" (WICA) examines the impact of this regulation, which offers a path to regularization for long-term tolerated individuals in Germany.

With the WICA project, the BAMF Research Centre is conducting an evaluation of the Opportunity Residence Permit (§ 104c AufenthG). This regulation came into force on December 31, 2022 for a period of three years. It is aimed at individuals with a tolerated status (Duldung) who have been residing in Germany for at least five years (as of October 31, 2022). Until the end of 2025, they can obtain a temporary residence permit valid for 18 months, during which period they have the opportunity to acquire the integration measures and identity clarification that are necessary for transitioning into a longer-term residence permit. Individuals who do not meet these criteria after the 18 months will revert to a tolerated stay.

Objectives and research questions

In addition to reducing the number of long-term tolerated individuals, the Opportunity Residence Permit aims to incentivize labour market integration and identity clarification. There is currently little empirical research on the extent to which these goals are being achieved. Building on the BAMF Brief Analysis 03|2025, the WICA project examines the effects of the Opportunity Residence Permit, including a comparison with other regularization measures. The project addresses the following questions:

• Which individuals successfully transition from the Opportunity Residence Permit to a longer-term residence permit? Who reverts to a tolerated stay?
• Are individuals who are eligible for the Opportunity Residence Permit more likely to transition to longer-term residence permit than comparable but ineligible individuals?
• What residence-status trajectories unfold among those who revert from the Opportunity Residence Permit to a tolerated stay?
• How does the administration perceive the implementation of the measure, particularly in terms of administrative effort, benefits and challenges?
• How well informed are individuals with long-term tolerated stay about the Opportunity Residence Permit, and what experiences do they report with that measure?

Research design

The project combines quantitative and qualitative methods: First, statistical analyses are conducted using longitudinal data from the German Central Register of Foreign Nationals (AZR). The findings are then contextualised and explored in greater depth via interviews with experts from public authorities and counselling centres.

WICA was developed as a follow-up project to the Feasibility Study on the Im-/Mobility of Persons Obliged to Leave Germany (MIMAP).